The weather bureau says there is a moderate chance of a cyclone forming in north-west Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria, but it is more likely to form in the Coral Sea off the state's north coast.

A monsoon low is currently located in the western gulf and is expected to intensify as it moves east.

Senior forecaster Peter Otto says there is the likelihood of some severe weather associated with the system, as it moves over the Peninsula district tomorrow.

"It is a moderate chance of developing into a cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is more likely to form over the northern waters of the Coral Sea later this week," he said.

"It looks at this stage [like] the low may form into a tropical cyclone off the north-east coast of Queensland, that is the most likely scenario but it should move further away from the coast and actually draw the heavier weather away with it.

"As the monsoon tracks eastwards, we will see some heavy rain over the peninsula district and the northern parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria.

"People need to keep watching our information and make sure that the information doesn't change, but at this stage it looks like we may get a cyclone off the north-east coast but it looks likely to move further away."