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Gas exports to overtake iron ore by 2030

Print Page Published: 05:22:12 AM, Thu 28 February 2013

Gas is expected to overtake iron ore as Australia's biggest export by 2030 as Asia's middle class explodes.

HSBC's latest trade forecast report shows Australia's exports will shift from industrial commodities like iron ore to commodities like base metals and mineral fuels, which support Asia's consumer needs.

Commercial banking head James Hogan says China would shift from infrastructure development in the next 15 years, sparking demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), copper and nickel.

"You'll have a middle class that have effectively trebled as they look at how they decorate their homes, the equipment they use, what's in their kitchens and their lifestyle changes," Mr Hogan told AAP on Thursday.

"That gets reflected in the demand for goods as consumption patterns change."

The report found Asia's middle class would expand from 500 million to 1.3 billion by 2030 and 2.6 billion by 2050.

"As Asian countries urbanise and its consumers' tastes mature, Australia's exports will similarly change to meet these growing demands," Mr Hogan said.

The report also shows the rise of mineral fuels will contribute 20 per to Australia's overall export growth by 2020.

Base metals, such as copper and nickel, are tipped to be within Australia's top five exports by 2030.

Copper and nickel are used in the manufacturing of higher-end goods like electrical equipment, stainless steel, batteries and electric motors.

China is still the nation's biggest export destination, accounting for 30 per cent of exports, and Australia is now China's fifth biggest trading partner.

Eighty per cent of Australia's exports would go to Asia by 2020, up from 72 per cent currently, the report found.

It also said there was potential to innovate further and export high-end technology and equipment to Asia such as specialised mining equipment and instrumentation, plastics used in machinery, energy systems and transportation.

The strength of the Australian dollar was unlikely to change anytime soon so manufacturers would need to produce quality products which were less sensitive to pricing.

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