NT Chief Minister Terry Mills says Rio Tinto Ltd is holding him to ransom over a new gas pipeline.

Analysts expect Rio to post $9b profit

Published: 06:20:40 AM, Tue 12 February 2013 UTC

Mining giant Rio Tinto is expected to post a full year net profit of more than $9 billion, driven by the company's iron ore business.

But the result will be affected by $US14 billion worth of writedowns of its aluminium and coal assets it announced before replacing its chief executive Tom Albanese last month.

The world's second largest iron ore miner will report its 2012 earning on Thursday.

It comes after a volatile year for iron ore, with the spot price falling below $90 per tonne.

More than 80 per cent of Rio's earnings come from iron ore, which reached a price of $US155 per tonne overnight.

Morningstar analyst Mark Taylor said a recent boost in iron ore prices would not be reflected in Rio Tinto's full year results. But it is anticipated to drive down 2012 earnings.

"The driver is iron ore which is basically the entire result, offsetting some losses in aluminium and other lesser divisions," Mr Taylor said.

"Nevertheless, it's a 24 per cent reduction in iron ore EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) over 2011."

Morningstar has forecast full year earnings per share of $4.76 based on revenue of $US52.3 billion ($A51.12 billion) and net profit after tax of $US9.1 billion ($A8.89 billion).

Mr Taylor said the company's new chief executive Sam Walsh, the former head of iron ore, was unlikely to make any immediate changes following the departure of Tom Albanese.

"I don't think the change at the top will have any effect on near-term to medium-term stuff," Mr Taylor said.

"It'll be more the longer term capital allocation."

The market anticipates Sam Walsh will cut back on capital expenditure and concentrate on cost reductions and potentially announce some more write-downs.

Market consensus for earnings per share is $US4.95 ($A4.84).

Mine Life analyst Gavin Wendt said Mr Albanese had lost his job over the $4 billion write-down of the Mozambique project after ignoring local advisers.

"Mr Walsh will have as his major tasks re-engagements on two fronts - Mozambique and Mongolia," Mr Wendt said.

Rio recently welcomed a tribunal ruling blocking access to its main Pilbara train lines by other mining companies.

Last month it posted a full year production result of 253 millions tonnes, (mt) beating its own guidance of 250mt by 1.2 per cent and topped last year's 245mt by four per cent.

In August Rio reported a first half underlying profit that fell 34 per cent to $US5.2 billion ($A4.95 billion).

That same month the company said it would press ahead with its plans to increase iron ore production by 50 million tonnes to 283 million tonnes a year by the end of 2013.

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