German Chancellor and chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, CDU, Angela Merkel attends a press conference after the party's weekly executive committee meeting in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a state election loss months before a national vote was painful — but she's downplaying the implications for her quest for a third term. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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German Chancellor and chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, CDU, Angela Merkel attends a press conference after the party's weekly executive committee meeting in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a state election loss months before a national vote was painful — but she's downplaying the implications for her quest for a third term. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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German Chancellor and chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, CDU, Angela Merkel attends a press conference after the party's weekly executive committee meeting in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a state election loss months before a national vote was painful — but she's downplaying the implications for her quest for a third term. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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German Chancellor and chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, CDU, Angela Merkel, right, and the CDU top candidate of the Lower Saxony state elections, David McAllister, left, leave the podium after a press conference after the party's weekly executive committee meeting in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a state election loss months before a national vote was painful — but she's downplaying the implications for her quest for a third term. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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Peer Steinbrueck, Social Democratic Party (SPD) challenger for Chancellor Angela Merkel at the upcoming general election in autumn, listens to a news conference of SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel and Stephan Weil, top candidate in Lower Saxony at the party's headquarters in Berlin, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. The opposition parties SPD and Green Party eked out a victory in a neck-and-neck state election in Lower Saxony, Germany, winning 69 seats in Lower Saxony, home to about one tenth of German voters, while the governing Christian Democrats and Free Democrats retained 68 seats. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks up after smelling at coffee beans during the opening tour of the 'International Green Week' in Berlin, Germany, Friday, Jan. 18, 2013. International Green Week opens to the public from Jan. 18 until Jan. 27, 2013. (AP Photo/dpa, Michael Kappeler)
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Stephan Weil, top candidate for the Social Democratic Party, SPD, in Lower Saxony, left, and Lower Saxony's incumbent state governor, Christian Democrat David McAllister, right, pose for photographers after the state election in Lower Saxony, in Hannover, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. Some 6.1 million people were eligible to vote for a new state legislature in Lower Saxony, which occupies a swathe of northwestern Germany. The vote is a significant electoral test before the German national parliamentary elections in September. (AP Photo/Gero Breloer)
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Social Democratic Party (SPD) top candidate for the upcoming general elections Peer Steinbrueck reacts after the first exit polls of the state election in Lower Saxony in the party's headquarters in Berlin, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. (AP Photo/dpa, Kay Nietfeld)
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German Economy Minister and chairman of the German Free Democrats, FDP, Philipp Roesler, gets into his car after casting his ballot for the state election of Lower Saxony in Isernhagen, near Hannover, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. Some 6.1 million people are eligible to vote for a new state legislature in Lower Saxony, which occupies a swathe of northwestern Germany. The vote is a significant electoral test before the German national parliamentary elections in September. (AP Photo/Gero Breloer)
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Christian Democratic Union party candidate for governor in Lower Saxony, David McAllister casts his vote in a ballot box at a polling station in Bad Bederkesa, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. Some 6.1 million people are eligible to vote for a new state legislature in Lower Saxony, which occupies a swathe of northwestern Germany. The vote is a significant electoral test before the German national parliamentary elections in September. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein)
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FILE - The March 13, 2012 file photo shows a man on a scooter, exiting from a gate of Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus. When it came to helping out Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Germany grudgingly went along with its European partners and backed hundreds of billions in rescue loans. But now that tiny Cyprus is in trouble, German politicians for the first time appear in no mood to help _ which could put the Mediterranean island country on the path to bankruptcy and out of the eurozone. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
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German Klaus Schwab, founder and president of the World Economic Forum, WEF, gestures during a press conference, in Cologny near Geneva, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 16, 2013. The World Economic Forum today unveiled the programme for its Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, including the key participants, themes and goals. The Meeting, will take place from Jan. 23 to Jan. 27, 2013 . (AP Photo/Keystone/Laurent Gillieron)
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Cyprus' main opposition Democratic Rally party leader Nicos Anastasiades, right, are seen before a European People's Party (EEP) meeting in Cyprus' southern coastal resort of Limassol in an extraordinary summit on Friday, Jan. 11, 2013. Among the topics of discussion at the meeting hosted by the leader of Cyprus' main opposition Democratic Rally party Nicos Anastasiades will be the EU budget. Anastasiades is currently leading opinion polls as the top contender ahead of the country's Feb. 17 presidential election. Cyprus is in the midst of talks with international lenders on a bailout to rescue its ailing banking sector that sustained massive losses on bad Greek debt and loans. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel gestures as Cyprus' main opposition Democratic Rally party leader Nicos Anastasiades, right, looks on, following a European People's Party (EEP) meeting in Cyprus' southern coastal resort of Limassol in an extraordinary summit on Friday, Jan. 11, 2013. Among the topics of discussion at the meeting hosted by the leader of Cyprus' main opposition Democratic Rally party Nicos Anastasiades was the EU budget. Anastasiades is currently leading opinion polls as the top contender ahead of the country's Feb. 17 presidential election. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
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German Chancellor and chairwoman of the German Christian Democrats, CDU, Angela Merkel, left, and the CDU top candidate of the Lower Saxony state elections, David McAllister, right, attend the party's weekly executive committee meeting in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013. A defeat for Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition in a high-profile state election is a blow to the German leader as she seeks a third term later this year — but it's far from clear whether the opposition will be strong enough to oust the popular conservative. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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FILE - The Jan. 17, 2013 file photo shows German Chancellor Angela Merkel, left, of the Christian Democratic party and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, right, of the Liberal Democratic Party FDP talk during a meeting of the German federal parliament, Bundestag, in Berlin. A defeat for Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition in a high-profile state election is a blow to the German leader as she seeks a third term later this year — but it's far from clear whether the opposition will be strong enough to oust the popular conservative. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
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Stephan Weil, top candidate for the Social Democratic Party, SPD, in Lower Saxony, left, and Lower Saxony's incumbent state governor, Christian Democrat David McAllister, right, stand next to each other after the state election in Lower Saxony, in Hannover, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative-led coalition was in a neck-and-neck race with Germany’s center-left opposition in a state election Sunday that was a major test ahead of a national vote later this year. Lower Saxony, a region of 8 million people which occupies a swathe of northwestern Germany, has been run for the past decade by a coalition of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union and the pro-market Free Democrats, the same parties that form the national government. (AP Photo/Gero Breloer)
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German Economy Minister and chairman of the German Liberals, Philipp Roesler, delivers a statement during an election event at the party's headquarters in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, Jan. 20, 2013. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative-led coalition was in a neck-and-neck race with Germany’s center-left opposition in a state election Sunday that was a major test ahead of a national vote later this year. Lower Saxony, a region of 8 million people which occupies a swathe of northwestern Germany, has been run for the past decade by a coalition of Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union and the pro-market Free Democrats, the same parties that form the national government. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)
State loss a blow to Merkel, but far from decisive
BERLIN (AP) — The defeat of Chancellor
Angela Merkel's coalition in a high-profile state election is a blow to the German leader as she seeks a third term later this year. But it's far from clear that the opposition can build on its narrow win to oust the popular conservative.
The opposition Social Democrats and Greens ejected Merkel's center-right alliance from the government of Lower Saxony state Sunday, winning a single-seat majority in its legislature. It was a major test before national parliamentary elections, which are due in September.
Merkel said "a defeat hurts all the more" when it is so close, but stressed how close her coalition came to winning and insisted that a victory seemed "completely impossible" a few months ago. That, she said after leaders of her Christian Democratic Union met Monday, "is also a good message, that we can win."
Still, Lower Saxony's CDU governor lost his job despite his personal popularity — and surveys show Merkel herself is considerably more popular than her coalition of the last 3 ½ years with the pro-market Free Democrats.
"Merkel is a queen without a country," charged Andrea Nahles, the general secretary of the main opposition Social Democrats. "It turned out that her virtual popularity in polls can't be transferred to the streets."
The combination of CDU and Free Democrats, which has a reputation for persistent infighting, hasn't won a state election since Merkel won her second term in 2009's national vote and has now lost control of four states.
Merkel stressed that she still wants to secure a new term for the combination nationally — though she also made clear that her party will pay greater attention to broadening its own support.
The opposition's campaign focuses on narrowing the gap between Germany's haves and have-nots, with measures such as tax increases and a crackdown on tax evasion.
Merkel and her party have been bolstered in national polls by a relatively robust economy, low unemployment and the chancellor's hard-nosed handling of Europe's debt crisis. They also have profited from a stumbling performance by her Social Democratic challenger, Peer Steinbrueck, while the Free Democrats took much of the blame for internal government squabbling — particularly over the party's unfulfilled demands for tax cuts.
On Sunday, tactical voting by conservative supporters helped the Free Democrats easily clear the 5 percent support needed to win parliamentary seats — which pre-election polls suggested it might not. But that weighed down the performance of Merkel's party without giving the combination enough votes to hold off the opposition.
The outcome is "not a good foundation for the national election campaign," said Gero Neugebauer, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University. "The distance between the chancellor's popularity and people's approval of the government's work is so large that that would give me cause for concern."
The result ends, for now at least, sniping within the Free Democrats about embattled Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler's future as party leader. Roesler said Monday he would stay on — but that the party's veteran parliamentary caucus leader, Rainer Bruederle, will lead its election campaign.
Both sides will see Sunday's result as an incentive to mobilize their supporters, and Neugebauer noted that while the opposition alliance has helped its chances by presenting a united front, "the situation at federal level is a bit different" than in Lower Saxony.
A hard-left competitor that is strong in Germany's ex-communist east and not expected to join any government, the Left Party, is expected to win seats nationally, unlike in Lower Saxony — reducing the chance of a majority for the Social Democrats and Greens.
Recent national polls show a majority neither for Merkel's center-right coalition nor for the main opposition parties. That raises the possibility of Merkel — whose party consistently leads polls — returning to the "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats under which she ran Germany for four years after narrowly winning election in 2005. The centrist combination was popular with voters but disliked by both parties' supporters.
Merkel signaled that her party will now make a greater effort to shore up its support, and the Free Democrats can't expect any more favors. She said her party won't be afraid to emphasize differences with its partner, for example over whether to introduce minimum wages.
"It will be an election campaign in which everyone fights for themselves and their votes — and perhaps one of the lessons from Lower Saxony is that there shouldn't be so much fear of the Free Democrats disappearing," she said. "It's important for broadening the base that we don't take votes from each other in the same field."
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